Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $52,011$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,484.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52,484.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,521$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(646 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,305.6}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 35.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,305.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,289$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $222,857$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216,810.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(216,810.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,299$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,261.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 32.1)}}\) (asimptote \(25,261.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,410$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $217,185$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,925.5}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(212,925.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,201$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,529.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(29,529.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $87,961$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $212,629$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,387.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(222,387.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,316$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,498.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,498.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $180,316$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $176,202$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,926.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(176,926.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,233$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,572.0}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,572.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $94,077$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,265$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,711.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,711.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,175$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,280.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,280.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,119$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,292$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,728.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42,728.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,377$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(509 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,356.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,356.4\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,768$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,541$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,333.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,333.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,429$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(55.2 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,554.1}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,554.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,002$ on 2020-05-08